D3.154 - Trends in Bronchial Asthma Incidence in Crimea: Analysis from 2017-2024 with Age-Specific Insights

Bronchial asthma (BA) remains a significant public health issue globally. This study aimed to assess the dynamics and age-specific patterns of BA morbidity in the Republic of Crimea from 2017 to 2024, considering the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Official statistical data from for 2017–2024 were analyzed. Overall and primary BA incidence rates (per 100,000 population) were calculated for four age groups: 0–14, 15–17, 18–59, and 60+ years. Regression analysis was performed to evaluate trends and forecast future morbidity.

Overall BA incidence increased from 796.57 in 2017 to 936.16 per 100,000 in 2024. Primary incidence rose from 37.43 to 53.78 per 100,000. Regression analysis confirmed a statistically significant annual increase (β=355.3 cases per year, p<0.001). Age-specific trends diverged: in the post-pandemic period, incidence declined in the 0–14 and 15–17 age groups but increased significantly among adults aged 18–59 and 60+. This model forecasts a rise to approximately 19,007 cases by 2027.

A steady upward trend in BA morbidity occurred in Crimea, driven primarily by increasing incidence in the adult population. The COVID-19 pandemic likely influenced these dynamics, altering age-specific patterns.