D2.90 - Decrease in New-Onset Asthma During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Asthma is a common chronic respiratory disease worldwide. During the COVID-19 pandemic, measures to reduce virus transmission coincided with reduced asthma exacerbations. This study investigates whether these measures also affected the development of new-onset asthma.

Data from the Korea National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) were analyzed. Asthma was defined as having at least two prescriptions for asthma-related medications within one year of the initial diagnosis under the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes J45–J46. New-onset asthma was identified as cases diagnosed between 2011 and 2022, with no prior records of asthma diagnosis or treatment between 2002 and 2010. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to assess the incidence of new-onset asthma during the pandemic.

A total of 4,795,366 adults were diagnosed with new-onset asthma between January 2011 and December 2022. Seasonal trends revealed peaks in incidence during winter, with a notable reduction in the magnitude of both peaks and troughs during the pandemic years (2020 and 2021). ARIMA analysis indicated a 41% lower-than-expected incidence during the pandemic (incidence ratio: 0.592; 95% CI: 0.426–0.800; p < 0.001). From March 2022, incidence rates began to rise, culminating in a 1.5-fold higher incidence in 2022 compared to 2020 or 2021.

The incidence of new-onset asthma significantly decreased during the pandemic, likely due to public health interventions. However, a resurgence following the relaxation of these measures highlights their potential role in mitigating asthma development. This research was supported by a grant from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (No. 2021-05-008).